I agree that Trump and his advisors are a better chance for peace in Eastern Europe and the end to hardship and suffering for Ukrainians and Russians, which can only be seen as a positive. However I don’t think a Trump Presidency will be a net positive for World peace. Agreed there will probably an easing of tensions with Russia and maybe North Korea. However the situation in the Middle East will become even worse than now. Let’s not forget it was Trump who approved moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, the outright annexation of the Golan Heights and the assassination of Ghassem Soleimani. With fanatical and very wealthy Zionists such as Mariam Adelson backing Trump, and the influence of such groups as the fanatically anti-Iranian Foundation for Defence of Democracies, I’m not hopeful for any improvement and I’m afraid the genocide in Gaza will just continue.
Trump is also a major China hawk, so tensions between the US and China may also increase in a second Trump term. Essentially he's not a strategic thinker, only transactional so it's hard to predict what his actions will be, and who will drive policy directions. But if his administration can de-escalate with Russia, the world is objectively a bit safer from nuclear catastrophe. It's also possible that Israel may be bloodied enough by Hezbollah before he assumes office that his pledge to let Israel "finish the job" will no longer be viable. But who knows?
As a wise man(Yogi Berra) once said, "never make predictions, especially about the future."
I don't foresee a negotiated peace agreement ending this proxy war. Presuming that the U.S. can persuade Russia that it is prepared to take the unprecedented action of negotiating in good faith, any deal would blow up the minute Trump suspects that he looks weak. And then there's the significant problem that Trump/U.S. are liars who cannot be trusted to honor their agreements.
Some positive thinking at last. Thanks for this glimmer of light at the end of a Ukraine tunnel within six months at least - unless the US Neocons escalate it to all out war - there - and/or set things off sacrificing the people of Taiwan in their provocation of a war with China as done with poor Ukraine.
Actually a pleasant surprise if Trump's advisors made such a suggestion.
But I'm afraid that Dems (with the backing of the media who are genuinely scared of Trump) will make the usual accusations, and as before, make it very hard for Trump admin to compromise. There's also the cumulative effect of US greenlighting, supplying, and covering for terrorist acts out of Kiev for several years. That sort of behavior is deeply baked into Ukrainian gov institutions now, and makes it easy for even a small group to sabotage any peace. Lastly I'd note that the end of the war would also be fatal (possibly literally) for Zelensky and his cronies, considering how cynically they smashed up the country that elected them in hopes of peaceful compromise... and the strange bedfellows factor of the Jewish president and the Bandera-Nazi revival that now inhabits the Ukrainian state's institutions, while hiding behind Zelensky's ethnicity to avoid criticism from the West.
The one motivating factor in play for a settlement, might be a Trump admin prioritizing Israel even more explicitly than Biden has. IOW, US stepping in to take on Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and probably much of Iraq - all at the same time. But this points more to a minimalist "low simmer" solution to Ukraine being a resource drain. Thus the tempting solution, most palatable to all stakeholders, and common historically for the US, would be to attempt to merely decrease the intensity of the fighting. Though of course there has to be something in it for the Russian government to play along, and that too would only work if Kiev can be convinced to refrain from further terrorism. Attempts to pay them off to achieve this are a fool's errand, as the DoD surely found out by now.
For this "Peace agreement" to be finalized, the United States will have to give up some of its marbles to Russia which shouldn't be too difficult since President Joe Biden has clearly lost all of his.
My personal belief is that neither Trump or Biden have much say over foreign policy; and that the war in Ukraine will last until 2027. The US won’t negotiate, Russia will continue fighting, they advance less than 1 km pet day and they have hundreds of Km to even reach the dneiper…
I agree that Trump and his advisors are a better chance for peace in Eastern Europe and the end to hardship and suffering for Ukrainians and Russians, which can only be seen as a positive. However I don’t think a Trump Presidency will be a net positive for World peace. Agreed there will probably an easing of tensions with Russia and maybe North Korea. However the situation in the Middle East will become even worse than now. Let’s not forget it was Trump who approved moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, the outright annexation of the Golan Heights and the assassination of Ghassem Soleimani. With fanatical and very wealthy Zionists such as Mariam Adelson backing Trump, and the influence of such groups as the fanatically anti-Iranian Foundation for Defence of Democracies, I’m not hopeful for any improvement and I’m afraid the genocide in Gaza will just continue.
Trump is also a major China hawk, so tensions between the US and China may also increase in a second Trump term. Essentially he's not a strategic thinker, only transactional so it's hard to predict what his actions will be, and who will drive policy directions. But if his administration can de-escalate with Russia, the world is objectively a bit safer from nuclear catastrophe. It's also possible that Israel may be bloodied enough by Hezbollah before he assumes office that his pledge to let Israel "finish the job" will no longer be viable. But who knows?
As a wise man(Yogi Berra) once said, "never make predictions, especially about the future."
I expect that the Hezbollah situation will be forced well before the election…
I don't foresee a negotiated peace agreement ending this proxy war. Presuming that the U.S. can persuade Russia that it is prepared to take the unprecedented action of negotiating in good faith, any deal would blow up the minute Trump suspects that he looks weak. And then there's the significant problem that Trump/U.S. are liars who cannot be trusted to honor their agreements.
Some positive thinking at last. Thanks for this glimmer of light at the end of a Ukraine tunnel within six months at least - unless the US Neocons escalate it to all out war - there - and/or set things off sacrificing the people of Taiwan in their provocation of a war with China as done with poor Ukraine.
Actually a pleasant surprise if Trump's advisors made such a suggestion.
But I'm afraid that Dems (with the backing of the media who are genuinely scared of Trump) will make the usual accusations, and as before, make it very hard for Trump admin to compromise. There's also the cumulative effect of US greenlighting, supplying, and covering for terrorist acts out of Kiev for several years. That sort of behavior is deeply baked into Ukrainian gov institutions now, and makes it easy for even a small group to sabotage any peace. Lastly I'd note that the end of the war would also be fatal (possibly literally) for Zelensky and his cronies, considering how cynically they smashed up the country that elected them in hopes of peaceful compromise... and the strange bedfellows factor of the Jewish president and the Bandera-Nazi revival that now inhabits the Ukrainian state's institutions, while hiding behind Zelensky's ethnicity to avoid criticism from the West.
The one motivating factor in play for a settlement, might be a Trump admin prioritizing Israel even more explicitly than Biden has. IOW, US stepping in to take on Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and probably much of Iraq - all at the same time. But this points more to a minimalist "low simmer" solution to Ukraine being a resource drain. Thus the tempting solution, most palatable to all stakeholders, and common historically for the US, would be to attempt to merely decrease the intensity of the fighting. Though of course there has to be something in it for the Russian government to play along, and that too would only work if Kiev can be convinced to refrain from further terrorism. Attempts to pay them off to achieve this are a fool's errand, as the DoD surely found out by now.
For this "Peace agreement" to be finalized, the United States will have to give up some of its marbles to Russia which shouldn't be too difficult since President Joe Biden has clearly lost all of his.
My personal belief is that neither Trump or Biden have much say over foreign policy; and that the war in Ukraine will last until 2027. The US won’t negotiate, Russia will continue fighting, they advance less than 1 km pet day and they have hundreds of Km to even reach the dneiper…
Yeah, that is great but what about Palestine.